Liverpool vs Man City: Analyzing the Numbers as Premier League Giants Clash at Anfield

Liverpool will be hosting reigning champions Manchester City on Super Sunday, in a highly anticipated match that will be broadcasted under the Sky cameras. Both teams have been displaying polarised form leading up to this clash. Liverpool, currently sitting at the top of the table, have been in exceptional form with 8 wins out of 8 matches so far. Their attacking prowess, solid defense, and exceptional teamwork have made them strong contenders for the title this season. On the other hand, Manchester City has had a somewhat inconsistent start to the season, with uncharacteristic losses and draws. However, they still have a strong squad with top players like Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling who are capable of turning the game around in an instant. It will be interesting to see how these two teams match up against each other, with the stats pointing towards a fierce and competitive battle between the two sides. Both teams will be looking to secure a crucial three points and prove their dominance in the league.

Liverpool have won 16 of their 18 games in all competitions this season, while Manchester City have not won in their last six games, losing five - their worst run in over eight years.

While City's key absences of Ruben Dias and Rodri are well documented and have led to their defensive frailties with 17 goals conceded in the last six games, Guardiola's team have also been struggling as an attacking force.

The champions have scored just 22 goals in the Premier League this season - in only one season under Pep have they scored fewer at this stage of a season (18 after 12 games in 2020/21).

Comparing all nine seasons under Guardiola after 12 games of a Premier League season, in only two campaigns have City had more shots than in this campaign.

The problem seems to be in converting those chances, with City having their second-worst shot conversion at this stage and their worst expected goals performance. For only the third time in nine seasons, Manchester City have a negative xG performance at this stage of a campaign.

As far as individual players are concerned, four of the six with the highest expected goals in the Premier League this season without scoring are from Manchester City.

Phil Foden makes that list, having not scored in any of his nine Premier League appearances this season - his worst run without a league goal since 15 appearances from May 2019 until March 2020.

The 24-year-old has taken 20 shots in the Premier League so far this term, with just two on target - the worst shooting accuracy of any player to take at least 15 shots.

Last season's PFA and Football Writers' Player of the Year also made a relatively slow start to the last Premier League campaign, with just one goal in his first nine appearances. Foden then went on to score 18 goals in his last 26 league appearances to reach a career-best 19 Premier League goals for the season.

The difference between the start of last season and this is Foden was contributing creatively at the beginning of 2023/24 with three assists, as well as his one goal. This season, he has contributed just one assist in 551 minutes of playing time.

As shown by the stats, Foden's expected assists (xA) for this season are greater than after nine appearances last term, suggesting his team-mates are failing to put away the chances he is creating.

Only seven players have a higher xA than City's No 47 this season, with each of those playing more minutes than Foden.

The man who can usually be guaranteed to finish any chance his Manchester City team-mates create, Erling Haaland, is currently in the middle of a Premier League slump by his exceptional standards, having scored just two goals in his last seven league appearances. This was after scoring 10 goals in the first five games of the season.

By contrast, during his last seven Premier League appearances, Liverpool talisman Mohamed Salah has scored seven goals. While Haaland has had more shots and has a higher xG than the Egyptian during this period, Salah's conversion rate is over five times better than that of City's No 9.

Haaland's scoring may have slowed in the Premier League, but the importance of his goals remains. His 12 goals this season have earned Manchester City 11 points - his best points-per-goal ratio by far in his three seasons at City.

Overall, his 75 Premier League goals have been worth 49 points to his team, giving him a total points-per-goal ratio of 0.65.

Over the last three seasons, Salah's 47 goals have earned Liverpool 36 points - a points-per-goal ratio of 0.77.

Liverpool will go into Sunday's game playing Manchester City with a lead of eight or more points over their rivals for the first time since July 2020.

If Arne Slot's team were to win at Anfield that lead would increase to 11. Only once in Premier League history has a team been 11 or more points behind the leaders, having played the same number of games and overcome that deficit to win the title. That was in 1995/96, when Manchester United were 12 points behind leaders Newcastle - having both played 23 games - and went on to win the title by four points.

For in-form Liverpool to not get that win, Pep Guardiola's team will have to improve offensively and hope key players like Haaland and Foden improve their individual performances.